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game nft kiếm tiền:Commodity forecasts absurd, but China is key

时间:2个月前   阅读:11

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The question for 2023 is whether the impact of the war in Ukraine fades as producers supply more coal and LNG, or whether these markets will remain tight and at elevated prices.

THE folly and futility of forecasting commodity prices was rammed home this year, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upending markets and rendering all prior expectations largely irrelevant.

Nonetheless, analysts are drawn like moths to a flame at this time of the year, churning out new forecasts in the all too often vain hope that their soothsaying will prove on the money this time around.

Rather than criticise this orgy of self-flagellation, it’s a great exercise in taking stock and identifying trends that may persist or evaporate in the year ahead.

The first thing to note about 2022 was that while commodity prices were shocked by Russia’s Feb 24 attack on Ukraine, many are ending the year little changed or weaker than where they concluded 2021.

The notable exceptions are thermal coal and spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and it’s instructive that those are the commodities most impacted by the loss of Russian pipeline gas and coal shipments to Europe.

Asian spot LNG is up 12.4% so far in 2022, while 5,500 kilocalorie per kg Australian thermal coal has surged 35.5%, according to assessments by commodity price reporting agency Argus.

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The question for 2023 is whether the impact of the war in Ukraine fades as producers supply more coal and LNG, or whether these markets will remain tight and at elevated prices.

If the conflict in Ukraine becomes a protracted stalemate with neither side able to make decisive gains or compromises in potential talks, it’s likely that the market impact gradually fades away as participants adapt to the loss of supply, or the re-direction to Asian buyers, of Russia’s crude oil, products, coal and LNG.

This dynamic is probably already on display in crude oil, the world’s most important commodity, with Brent futures poised to end the year little changed from the last trading day of 2021.

Brent closed at US$80.10 (RM355) a barrel on Monday, up US$2.32 (RM10.29) from the last trading day of 2021.

However, this modest change comes after an incredibly volatile year, which saw prices spike to an intraday high of US$139.13 (RM617) a barrel on March 7 in the initial fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, before dropping as low as US$75.11 (RM333) early in December as global recession fears stoked demand fears.

If the Ukraine dynamic does fade from global commodity markets, the likely driver for crude is going to be fears of a global economic slowdown, with a generous side-helping of will China’s demand recover as the world’s biggest oil importer loosens its strict Covid-19 measures.

On the supply side, there is always the risk of more output cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, although a global recession may cause some strains within the alliance, especially if Russia does struggle to find new buyers for its crude and products in the wake of the Group of Seven price cap and the European Union ban on imports.

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